On October 17, 2007, the bill concerning ratification of the EPC200 was signed into law, and one day later, on October 18, 2007, the bill concerning ratifiocation of the London Agreement was also signed into law.
The EPO website currently assures that France will make it to deposit the Instrument of Ratification concerning EPC2000 in Berlin in due time by December 13, 2007.
This surely is no surprise. If well-oiled and properly instructed, the French Parlamentary, Presidential and Diplomatic machineries will no doubt be able to create and deliver an important document of this kind within a few weeks.
But what about the co-pending Instrument of Ratification for the London Agreement? It must have been processed on the same chain of desks virtually one after the other, but there are no assertions that it will be deposited very soon: Ms Alison Brimelow, President of EPO, had given an interview to Mr Joff Wild of IAM:
"[...] Her best guess, she told me, is that the London Agreement will come into force in the middle of next year - it will take four months after the French have deposited their instruments of accession and that has not yet happened. [...]"
If we assume that "middle of 2008" might be 1st of July, 2008, then the date of deposit might be in March of 2008. Why should France take additional three months to bring a document to Berlin where a very similar matter can be delivered by December 13, 2007?
However, Germany appears to be keen on making sure that the London Agreement will enter into force as soon as possible. And, Germany insists on a court system where cancellation / limitation matters are dealt with separately from infringement matters, not just so much in line with the French position. Hence, one might be tempted to think about speculative options to the effect that withholding the Instrument Of Ratification is a dead pledge directly pointing to Berlin: If Germany should not be willing to give in or compromise with regard to this strongly debated aspect of the patent court system, then the London Agreement might perhaps be frozen in for some unlimited period of time.
Hence, I would not be overly surprised if the London Agreement will come into force not earlier than in 2009, if at all.
Of course, this might be nothing else than a wacky speculative exercise, and France can immediately destroy any such bubbles simply by sending a diplomatic courier to Berlin. I hope they will do so.
[UPDATE 2007-12-07] According to the EPO EPC2000 Status webpage, the the deposit of the French Instrument of Ratification for EPC2000 took place on 5.12.2007.
According to information directly from the German Ministry of Justice, France has not deposited its ratification instrument of the London Agreement, although the ratification instrument for the EPC2000 was deposited on December 5, 2007.
The Portugese ratification instrument for the EPC 2000 shall already have arrived in Berlin in their embassy. It is expected that it will be deposited tomorrow with the "Auswaertige Amt". Thus, Portugal is expected to remain in the EPC.
According to a reliable source, as of today, Friday, December 28, 2007, 3 pm, France did not deposit the ratification instrument of the London Agreement with the Auswaertige Amt.
A theoretical possiblity remains for Monday, December 31, 2007 to effect the deposition.
However, this information can only be achieved on January 2, 2008 from my source.